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How to Predict Upsets

How to Predict Upsets

Upsets happen all the time in football. From Leicester City winning the Premier League to Chelsea winning the Champions League with a poor team. Who could also forget the drama in Istanbul?

So, as the topic suggest, there are upsets in any football match that the punter bets on. This is the beauty of betting on soccer because any football team between the two that are competing can pull a surprise win. It makes soccer betting fun and difficult. Stats shows that upsets of up to 50% happen in football. This is a higher percentage compared to any other sporting events that punters bet on. The soccer ball is round in shape which is why no one can boast around saying that they are sure of a certain football team winning the match. It is all about luck because even the big favourites tend to lose the match at times. The underdogs tend to surprise the big favourites especially if the underdogs are in the face of being relegated.

It is time to show you how to predict the upsets in football matches and take advantage of that since they may yield you good money. Before I take you through the predictions, it is for your own good to note that betting on the underdogs just for the sake of betting for them is never a good idea. As a punter, you need to have a concrete reason for doing that. Those reasons must be good enough to back up your betting for the underdogs.
There are factors to be considered when one wants to predict the upsets in a game. They are Injuries/suspensions, player motivations, records, and rivalries. These are key factors that the punters need to take a close look at in order to bet for underdog’s .i.e. if they feel like betting on them. Taking a look at each one of them will be like this:

The records and rivalries or just previous match encounters are what needs to be analysed real deep. Upsets do happen especially when the underdogs are facing the big favourites but at their home ground. The home team (underdogs) might have gone undefeated at their soil and therefore will less likely allow their selves to be intimidated by those big favourites. The other scenario can be in a case whereby the underdogs might have suffered a defeat at the hands of their opponents for a long time and hence will most certainly not let that to happen anymore. They will try and stop that from either winning the match or drawing but avoiding any more loss.

Player motivations or just team motivations is a key factor to be considered when predicting the upsets. Motivation comes along when the two teams are real bitter rivals and one of them might have lost to the other in the previous match. The underdogs normally tend to up their game in such cases especially if the match is a derby. The other motivation could be what is at stake for the two teams. It is very difficult to predict the outcome of the match especially when the two teams that are meeting are aiming at something. One could be aiming to be at the top of the league while the other could be avoiding the relegation zone or even could be eyeing to proceed to the next level in the cup competition. In such cases all players are motivated and therefore the outcome could favour any of them. Betting on underdogs in such scenarios could lead to humongous payouts.

Suspensions and injuries also bring upsets in a soccer game. Since high profiled players always dominate in the pitch, losing one of them might affect the outcome of the results in an awkward manner. The underdogs might have a better chance of winning the match than their opponents. Thus, any punter needs to be checking the team news of any new developments. If they find that one of the key players is injured or is serving a ban, and the bookies have not readjusted the odds accordingly, then that is the perfect time for the punter to capitalise on that by taking a chance with the underdogs. You never know. The underdogs might pull a surprise string and go ahead to win the match and thus a huge payout for the punter.

There is this other factor that might come in handy too when predicting the upsets. That factor is all about the style of play. When two defensive teams meet, it is very hard to predict the winner of that match. A situation like a possessive team meeting a defensive team is sometimes easier to predict especially if the defensive team are good in counter-attacking techniques. The underdogs may opt to defend the match and then make good use of any counter attacking opportunity that they get. They may end up scoring one or two goals against their opponents and then decide to defend for the remaining minutes. Thus, as a punter, you need to take a good look at the style of play of the two teams because one of the teams will end up getting favoured using their style of play.

Lastly, there comes a time when the two teams facing each other have equal chances of winning. However, the bookmakers might choose to award one underdog greater odds than the other. If that happens, a punter can go ahead and back the bigger underdogs to win rather than bagging the other underdogs. The game is very unpredictable and hence the taking a 50/50 chance is no big deal. The big underdogs do have huge odds but a punter needs to be careful to place a bet on them only if the upset is high enough.

All in all, predicting upsets is not an easy task as it involves a thorough research by the punters. It is a better move if a punter bets on underdogs at the right time. That should be the time to make huge profits.


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